I have always been fascinated with political strategy. Specifically, the political strategy that a candidate takes in order to secure votes. I am originally from the 8th district of Indiana and I have always found the political strategies for running a campaign in the 8th district race to be extremely interesting. The 8th district primaries for the candidates finished in early May 2024; the Republican Candidate is Mark Messmer of Jasper Indiana and Erik Hurt of Evansville Indiana is the Democrat Candidate.
Mark Messmer is very easy to figure out and he most definitely will win the 8th district seat. I estimate that he will win the seat by more than 10 points against Erik Hurt. Currently, it is May 24th, 2024 and the election is in Early November of 2024. Some facts about Mark Messmer:
Born and Raised in Southern Indiana, specifically Jasper Indiana which is predominantly German.
Mark Messmer has a German last name. The Biggest city in the 8th district is Evansville Indiana which is also predominantly German.
Mark Messmer is a Roman Catholic. Evansville, the biggest city in the 8th district, is predominantly Roman Catholic.
Mark Messmer's career history and his policy decisions have been/are 'politically safe' within the 8th district of Indiana (which is solidly red).
Now, let us talk about Erik Hurt the Democrat Candidate.
Erik was born and raised in Evansville Indiana and he is younger than Mark Messmer. But these two facts are the only advantages he has.
It seems that the last name 'Hurt' is of English origin. However, some Germans have been known to have this name. While this is most definitely not a strike against him, it doesn’t play in his favor either.
It is unknown as to what Erik Hurt's Religion is. While it is normally a good idea to keep religion a private matter, 8th district voters are by far very religious and would want to know a candidates religious beliefs such that they 'know where the candidate is coming from'. After all, he is vying to represent a congressional district which is overwhelmingly Christian and predominantly Roman Catholic.
Erik Hurt is by no means a 'Moderate Democrat'. Erik is very open with his views. In fact, he is so open about his views that it has already cost him the election for the 8th district even though he was nominated earlier this month.
I want to expand on point four and bring examples of his views and policies that have already cost him the election.
Example 1: From his website on his Policies, "I support the decriminalization of sex work."
This policy will be opposed in the 8th district of Indiana, it will also be opposed on a national level by a very large, unified voting block, the Average American Woman. Unfortunately for Erik, the average American Woman is not what I would call an "Absolute Equality Feminist". There are two primary reasons why they are not Absolute Equality Feminists. First reason is the fear of being drafted into a war to be sent to the front lines to be shot at (which Leon Panetta gave the ok for Women to be eligible for all combat roles back in 2013). And the second reason is because the average American Woman "does not want there to be a price on Pussy" (according to what I remember a Comedian saying).
Legalizing Sex Work or decriminalizing it would immediately change the power dynamic that exists between Women and Men in overwhelming favor of Men. The average American Woman does not want there to be a change in the power dynamic which overwhelmingly favors them in the present. In fact, I could see Mark Messmer on a debate stage with Erik to just elaborate on his own policy so that the entire 8th district can watch Erik ‘politically hang himself’.
And if Mark wanted to play the really good guy, he could point out that decriminalizing sex work could actually lead to an increase of human trafficking under the guise of 'legal sex work'. Nobody in the 8th district is for that.
Example 2: From his website on Policies, "I believe that Americans should have the right to an abortion and that the Democratic Party should have enshrined that right into law a long time ago. For too long it has been dangled in front of citizens for votes."
In a district which contains both Jasper, Evansville, Vincennes, and Posey County which are overwhelmingly Christian and predominantly Roman Catholic, this is the thing that has already killed any chance of him winning the 8th district.
Example 3: From his website on Policies, "I believe we should institute compulsory voter registration."
I had never heard of this concept before. When I read this at first glance, the first thing that came to my mind is "you want to force people to register to vote?" I asked ChatGPT if it could define "compulsory voter registration?" According to ChatGPT, "Compulsory voter registration is a system in which eligible citizens are required by law to register to vote."
That is exactly what I thought it was. I am Libertarian and a lot of people in the 8th district are pretty much live and let live. NO ONE should ever be fined, imprisoned, or punished in anyway for choosing not to register to vote. As Americans, we should respect everyone's' decision to register to vote. Some individuals may take a firm stance against registering to vote for whatever reasons (which could be personal, philosophical, religious, etc.). In fact, forcing someone to register to vote against their will (which would more than likely be based on reasons that are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution) would more than likely be a violation of the First Amendment.
Example 4: From his website on Policies, "The Israeli government is committing a genocide in Gaza and the American government has aided and abetted it."
According to an article from Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/MAPS/movajdladpa/#the-deteriorating-situation-in-gaza), the population of Gaza grew from 1.109 million People in 2000 to 2.047 million People in 2020. In that same article from Reuters, there are over 2.2 million people that are living there today. According to ChatGPT, "Genocide is defined as the deliberate and systematic extermination of a national, racial, ethnic, or religious group." Based on the article from Reuters, which is a reputable source of information, it does not seem that Israel was committing a Genocide against the people of Gaza since their population was able to double in 20 years within the geographical location known as Gaza.
According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war), since the Hamas Attacks on Israel on October 7th 2023, 35,800+ have been killed on the Hamas Side of Gaza Strip. I am sorry but Hamas started this war with their attacks on October 7th 2023, Israel has every right to defend itself and strike back.
I do agree with Erik on his request for a Ceasefire. But I believe in a Ceasefire for BOTH SIDES... FOR BOTH SIDES!!!!
Example 5: From his website on Policies, "The rights of members of the lgbtq+ community deserve to be protected. Consenting adults deserve to be allowed to marry who they wish and we all deserve to live comfortably in our own bodies."
On this one, I am shaking my head and I can only think of one question to ask regarding this policy. My Question, "What rights do I enjoy that members of lgbtq+ community don't enjoy?"
Last time I checked, same sex marriage is allowed in the USA. According to wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_law_in_the_United_States_by_state), "Via the case Obergefell v. Hodges on June 26, 2015, the Supreme Court of the United States legalized same-sex marriage in a decision that applies nationwide, with the exception of American Samoa and sovereign tribal nations."
Outside of the right to Marriage, members of the lgbtq+ are allowed to vote, they are allowed to own land and other property, and they can engage in society, they can't be discriminated against when it comes to employment, etc. US Citizens outside of the lgbtq+ community are not allowed to harm members of that community nor are they allowed to steal from them. So I really don't understand what he is fighting for as members of that community already have the same rights that I enjoy everyday.
With regard to his comment, "we all deserve to live comfortably in our own bodies," I agree with him on this point. This is a problem that straight people have to deal with too. However, I don't really understand how him getting elected to the US House of Representatives will allow all Americans to live comfortably in their own bodies.
For me, I need to get back to the Gym and Change my diet back to 6 small meals which are protein rich, Cut out bad carbs like French Fries, load up on vegetables like Broccoli, and drink a lot of water. Oh, and get at least 8 hours of sleep a night. After doing that, I would then start to feel better about being in my own body. As far as others living comfortable in their own bodies, the majority of people in the 8th district could honestly care less about how others live their lives or if “they are comfortable in their own bodies.” As far as they are concern, its a problem that is unique to the individual that is dealing with that problem. Therefore, it’s none of their business.
Needless to say, this policy point is going to cause the average person in the 8th district to roll their eyes and say, "Whatever dude".
Example 6: From his website on Policies, "We need to crack down on gun violence in this country. We have far higher rates of gun violence, murder, and mass shootings than our peer nations and we need to require background checks, ban assault weapons, and require safe gun storage."
Democrats always want to talk about "Gun Violence", but they never ever want to dive into the FBI Crime Statistics on "Gun Violence". According to the FBI Crime Data Explorer for 2022 (https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend), 15,297 Homicides were reported with a weapon type that was involved. 593 People were killed with the use of Personal Weapons (which includes fists, kicking, pushing, and other human body parts). Rifles made up 489 homicides (Rifles category not only includes AR15s and AK47s, but also bolt action rifles like the M1A Springfield). Knives and Cutting Instruments made up 1,216 of those homicides. Handguns and Firearms (not sure why the FBI seperated these out, the only thing I can think of is that you could have a pistol caliber carbine rifle which takes 9mm but it is actually being shot from a rifle), 10,387 combined. This is almost 68% of the problem. But guess what, majority of the handgun violence takes place in large population centers in the USA which suggests that this is gang related violence.
And here is my point for that. According to the data for Illinois, data for handgun, other firearm, and firearm sums up to 674 homicides. Looking specifically at what was reported by the Chicago Police Department for 2022, those same three categories sums up to 498. That's 73.9% of Illinois' gun violence for those categories in one Police Department. And that's not me saying it, that's Joe Biden's FBI.
I know for a fact that Erik is ignorant when it comes to "Assault Weapons" and I know he really means he wants to ban Civilian AR15s and Civilian AK47s (or any gun that looks ‘scary’). The problem with banning Assault Rifles is that Assault Riffles are already restricted and are not available for sell to the average law-abiding citizen. The only way that someone can get an actual Assault Rifle (which is select fire for automatic or semi-automatic bursts, uses intermediate cartridge ammunition such as 5.56 Nato or 7.62X39mm, and has a detachable magazine) is for someone to navigate the rules and licensing processes established by the National Firearms Act of 1934 and the Gun Control Act of 1968. So clearly, he means he wants to ban civilian AR15s and AK47s which do not meet the definition of an Assault Rifle as they are not Select Fire for Automatic Burst. In order for him to ban AR15s or AK47s, he would have to have the entire 2nd Amendment repealed. It has been well established by the Supreme Court of the USA in DC Vs Heller and the Bruen Decision that there is an individual right, absent of participation in a Militia, to keep and bear arms. Also, as to what arms we can own, the US Constituion allows for the US Government to grant Letters of Marque to Privateers (who were private citizens that owned warships which were armed with the most advanced technology of their day). There is already a historical precedent to own the same "Weapons of War" that advanced Militarys used within the US Constitution. If Erik wants to ban Civilian AR15s and Civilian AK47s, then its going to require a repeal of the 2nd amendment which is a long an arduous process that involves agreement of at least 38 states (3/4ths of the states) to repeal the 2nd amendment (that is not going to happen anytime soon). So I don't know what exactly he is advocating for, especially in an area like the 8th district which is majorly pro gun.
With regard to background checks, we already have mandatory FBI NICS Background checks when purchasing from an FFL dealer. What more is he asking for? Now private sales do not require a background check within Indiana. However, if you sell a gun in a private sale to an individual who commits a crime, that seller could be held liable and could face prosecution. So I don't know what more he wants. Personally I just think that him advocating "Background Check Requirements" is doing nothing more than trying to garner votes from people who are ignorant to the fact that there are already background checks that exist.
My Final Thoughts on Erik Hurt, Democratic Candidate for the 8th District of Indiana:
From what I have read from facebook sources authored by Erik Hurt (https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0UTY513fbRjpMF4idGf6czcanwwyC8pAKgfAyZcsv3JyCzhn8QrqqeEuR4H94Njd4l&id=100077525392350), it seems that Democratic Leadership within the 8th District of Indiana is not pleased with his victory to be the Democratic Candidate. According to Erik's own words, "When I started this campaign I reached out to him and another leader for the 8th and was brushed off. Chastised for not asking permission to run. They backed another candidate, Dave (Crook) was his campaign manager, and then Democracy played out, people voted, and I won."
Speaking as someone who was born in Evansville and grew up living in the 8th district (outside of 5 years in my youth living in Henderson KY across the Ohio River), I know how the average person in the 8th district thinks. Erik's policies, while very progressive, stand absolutely no chance of winning a majority of the vote in the 8th district. Honestly, Mark Messmer doesn't even have to debate Erik to win the 8th. As long as Mark Messmer makes his mandatory appearances at the Strassenfest in Jasper, Westside Nutclub Fall Festival in Evansville, meet and greets at different Catholic Functions in the 8th district (and Pro-Life Functions), and whatever Vincennes and Terre Haute has going on in their area, Mark is going to cruise to the 8th district seat easily.
The reason I am writing this long post on Locals is because I am going to feed this entire post into ChatGPT and ask it "why is Erik Hurt doing this to himself?" Is he running this campaign to catapult himself out of Evansville for something better? As I have become older and wiser, I have found myself becoming a more easy going pragmatist who realizes that rational people only do things in which they stand to gain something. Is Erik doing this for recognition of his peers who are also leftist?
I mean Erik, if you ever read this, remind yourself of these things: You stand absolutely no chance of winning the 8th district and Democratic Leadership from within the 8th seemed to have committed to not wasting any time or money on your campaign because of the fact that you are an unwinnable candidate. You do realize that you still have to live in Evansville immediately after you lose right (unless you have something bigger and better lined up to catapult you out)? And if you still choose to live here despite your loss, you realize that you are fair game to being ripped on in public right? After all, there is nothing more American than using our First Amendment Right to verbally 'poke fun', tease, and rip on a loser candidate.
Erik, you stand no chance of winning and I don't believe you to be stupid. What are you standing to gain by being so open with your policies in a district that would find your policies absolutely abhorrent or ridiculous? Are you not getting any kind of guidance for how to win a campaign for the 8th district seat? Are you wanting to lose on purpose? Is this some elaborate leftist kind of way to make fun of the 8th district of Indiana? Are you looking to get access to high dollar plate dinners at Democratic Fundraising Events (between you, myself, and any readers of this post, I would totally do that... mad respect if that is the case)? What exactly are you standing to gain?
And that begs another question. Since you were born an Evansvillian like me and lived the majority of your life in Evansville, this means that you have a very good idea on how certain politics play out in our home region. Do you actually believe in what you say? Or, did you just say that you believe those things knowing that you would get support from College Kids at University of Southern Indiana and ISU in Terre Haute (Big Universities residing within the 8th district of Indiana).
I sincerely believe that you are not ignorant or stupid. And I don't believe for one second that you have fully deceived yourself into believing that you have an actual chance of winning the 8th District of Indiana in 2024 when a lot of Hoosiers are severely pissed off at Joe Biden's nonsense (doubly pissed off in Evansville with that ‘Bidenflation’ hurting our fellow 'River Rats'). What are you looking to gain by running this election? What do you have planned for yourself after you lose? Your actions would not make any sense to me if you aren't planning to gain anything out of this campaign.
I will say one positive thing about you and also share a famous quote. It is extremely refreshing to find a candidate who is so unreserved and open about what it is that they stand for. Also, to quote Napoleon Bonaparte who I believed borrowed this quote from Sun Tzu, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
